BEIRUT, June 16 (Reuters) - Iran's disputed election has exposed rifts in a political and religious elite facing its gravest internal challenge since the 1979 Islamic revolution, but the system is likely to survive, by fair means or foul.
"This is a critical point that will decide whether Iran can move a little bit more towards democracy or whether it will be brutally turned back to a sort of Islamic dictatorship," said Udo Steinbach, a Berlin-based Middle East scholar.
Friday's presidential vote, which saw Mahmoud Ahmadinejad re-elected by a startlingly wide margin over his reformist rival Mirhossein Mousavi, has unleashed fierce street protests from Iranians who believe the authorities fixed the result.
Discord within the ruling system in the world's fifth biggest oil exporter has never been so public. "It's the first time it is so out in the open. Before it took place behind closed doors," said a Western diplomat in Tehran.
The Mousavi camp is backed by traditional establishment figures, such as former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, concerned about how Ahmadinejad's truculent foreign policy and populist economics are shaping Iran's future.
The president has not hesitated to attack them as figureheads of a corrupt class that has parlayed its past service to the revolution into acquiring wealth and privilege at the expense of Iran's devout poor in the countryside and city slums.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supposedly above the political fray, has favoured Ahmadinejad, who is also supported by the elite Revolutionary Guard and religious Basij militia.
Khamenei is ideologically more attuned to the president's hostility to the United States than to the reformists' talk of democracy and desire to mend fences with the West, even if they too defend a nuclear programme that Iran insists is peaceful.
NO RESPONSE TO OBAMA?
Iran's internal disarray will complicate any response to U.S. President Barack Obama's attempt to open a dialogue aimed at persuading the Islamic republic to make nuclear concessions in return for diplomatic and economic rewards.
"The Obama administration's opening to Iran will probably go unanswered -- not because of any real enthusiasm in Iran for moving toward a nuclear weapons programme, but because the power struggle within Iran's political elite will prevent anyone from seriously negotiating with Washington," said a PFC Energy note.
Ebrahim Yazdi, leader of a banned opposition party in Iran, told Reuters the election furore had deepened divisions among the "personalities of the revolution" and between the people and the government. "It is the biggest crisis since the revolution."
Another Iranian analyst, who asked not to be named, said an "open fight" had erupted between Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani, which had united most establishment figures, including Khatami and parliament speaker Ali Larijani, against the president.
Ahmadinejad's foes in the political elite differed among themselves on many issues, but all believed his foreign policy had worsened Iran's isolation, the analyst said.
Khamenei, perhaps taken aback at the scale of post-election dissent, has now authorised the 12-man appointed Guardian Council to oversee a partial recount, but this is unlikely to overturn a result he has already publicly endorsed.
"Despite the rising din of protest, the contested results of Iran's election will most likely be confirmed and the political system will probably consolidate around Khamenei," wrote Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.
SONS OF THE SYSTEM
Like Khatami before him, Mousavi has long served the system of Islamic rule and would be loathe to let the protests reach the point where it was put into question, Steinbach said.
"But if it is going to escalate and become violent, with people going to the streets, the regime will brutally crack down on them using all the means they have," he added.
Mousavi, a former prime minister, scrapped plans for another rally on Tuesday to "protect the lives" of his supporters after seven people were killed the day before. Ahmadinejad partisans had called a counter-demonstration in the same Tehran square.
Ahmadinejad, who has compared the protesters to the disgruntled supporters of a losing soccer team, has denied any fraud in what he called a "clean and healthy" election.
But Iran's reputation for lively, if strictly limited, democracy is likely to be tainted -- and large swathes of society alienated -- by the perceptions of electoral fraud.
Steinbach argued that pro-Mousavi supporters were expressing more than political frustrations, with many young people unable to find jobs, even those with university qualifications.
"They are looking for a better alternative to Ahmadinejad, who is blamed for running down Iran economically and socially," he said. "There is a frustration with the economic situation."
PFC Energy's note suggested that Khamenei had wanted Mousavi to lose, but was not totally comfortable with Ahmadinejad's win, while his move to let the Guardian Council probe alleged voting irregularities was an attempt to protect state legitimacy.
However, if Ahmadinejad's powers were not curbed, he would pursue expansionary policies and subsidies that stoke inflation.
"When the failures of those economic policies become evident ... he is likely to launch a severe scapegoating campaign," the note added. "He will target not just reformists, and not only Rafsanjani, but the rich and the urban middle classes generally. (Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi and Fredrik Dahl in Tehran; editing by Samia Nakhoul)
The records released last week by the New Brunswick Investment Management Corp. show heavy investments in Imperial Tobacco, Rothman's, British American Tobacco, Philip Morris, its parent company Altria Group and R.J. Reynolds. The provincial government agency that manages the pension funds of public servants, teachers and judges, had holdings in those companies worth about $21.2 million on March 31, 2008. Those same companies are all targets in a lawsuit launched in December 2006 by the province. New Brunswick alleges the companies failed to warn consumers of the dangers of smoking, marketed light cigarettes as safe and targeted children in their advertising campaigns. It argues those actions all led to widespread health problems and public medical costs for those who began smoking. "The optics of that aren't great," said Ellen Snider, a spokesperson for the New Brunswick branch of the Canadian Cancer Society. "I don't think the government has any choice but to take a close look at this and to consider the possibility that absolutely those [investments] have to be pulled, absolutely." The government pension funds have also invested in other tobacco companies, but those are not part of the lawsuit. Tobacco companies have called the lawsuit hypocritical since the province allowed the sale of cigarettes and profited from heavy taxes on the product. The Canadian Cancer Society is joined by the Canadian Medical Association, and Physicians for a Smoke Free Canada in questioning the appropriateness of public pension investments in tobacco interests Snider said it is especially dubious in New Brunswick because of the lawsuit. "As an organization, we support the lawsuit wholeheartedly but have some very serious questions around the investment in tobacco companies," Snider said. Neither Health Minister Michael Murphy nor Attorney General T.J. Burke would comment on the tobacco investments. A spokesman for the two said it would be inappropriate to comment while the lawsuit is before the courts. The New Brunswick Investment Management Corp. also declined to comment, but John Sinclair, the agency's president, directed CBC News to the organization's responsible investment guidelines, which are posted on its website. Those guidelines emphasize the responsibilities of pension fund managers to make as much money as possible through investments with the minimum of risk, with no weight to be given to "non-financial investment considerations." "In most cases we believe that the laws and regulatory agencies of the specific countries in which we invest are the best served to opine on social issues," the guidelines say. The government agency also announced last week that the province's pension plans suffered an 18.3 per cent loss last year due to the dramatic decline in global equity markets. The value of net assets under management shrank by $1.6 billion in fiscal 2008-09, finishing the year with $7 billion. 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Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff wants to raise four issues when he meets with Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Tuesday, looking to avoid toppling the minority government in a confidence vote. Ignatieff and Harper will meet at an undisclosed location to talk about the Liberal party's concerns surrounding the government's latest economic progress report. The latest economic progress report showed roughly 3,000 infrastructure projects across the country are getting underway as part of the government's $22.7-billion stimulus plan and that about 80 per cent of the plan's funding has already been allocated. "They can't ask me to vote for money if they can't tell me how they've spent it already," Ignatieff said Tuesday. Ignatieff said he wants to get "clarity" from the government on questions surrounding: "Let's get some explanations and let's then see whether there are gaps that can be narrowed," Ignatieff said Tuesday. "I'm realistic — we're realistic, reasonable people. I certainly hope the prime minister is, too." If the government isn't able to demonstrate its work in the areas, the Liberals may topple the minority Conservative government in a confidence vote slated for Friday in the House of Commons. The NDP and Bloc Québécois have already said that they will reject the economic report. Industry Minister Tony Clement told CBC News Tuesday the main sticking point between the two parties will likely be employment insurance. Ignatieff has proposed an immediate, temporary change to the EI system that would make people eligible for EI benefits if they've worked 360 hours in the previous 52 weeks — regardless of where they live. The NDP and Bloc have called for the EI eligibility threshold to be expanded permanently, not just for as long as the current recession lasts. But Harper has defended his government's EI system changes, including a $500-million program for retraining laid-off, long-tenured workers and an extension of EI benefits if applicants participate in longer-term training of up to two years. "We've already said Mr. Ignatieff's plan —this 45-day work year — is not reasonable, in the best interests of Canadians, so we're sticking to … our position on that," Clement said. He added the gap between the two parties on EI is not something that will likely be narrowed in four days. Ignatieff has said he was willing to extend the current session in Parliament. Clement said the Conservatives do not want an election. "We want to continue with our economic action plan, which is working for Canada." Ignatieff is creating a "crisis by threatening to derail the government as of Friday," he added. The Liberal leader said the party is doing its job as the Opposition. "We're trying to make sure that this Parliament works for Canadians and that we hold the government accountable," Ignatieff said.EI a sticking point
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